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Java Wars and Heros

There could be heros: Big losers and unsung heros of the new platform wars
June 18, 2000
by Rich Katz,
Java Skyline: News
If it weren't for Microsoft, Java applets would be dead...
There are things you can tell your priest - but don't tell your PC. Privacy is the loser in the search for the smoking gun...

       
    The struggles are constant: trying to establish dominance in platform technology. These battle used to be about economics and marketing. But more recently, the battle front has spread into the court rooms.

The platform wars have recently been dubbed the "Java Wars,"
but these battles pre-date Java and even now are not all Java related. In the earliest battles for the mainframe platform, IBM emerged victor. But mainframes are now a dwindling market, and that has motivated the big giant out into server and software markets. Battle lines are just now being drawn for the upcoming struggle for the mobile device platform. Here, Motorola once dominated, but is already losing its grip to a widening field that includes Palm, Nokia, Ericcson, Patriot Scientific and others.

It's too early to say who's winning in wireless. In a lot of these face-offs, nobody really wins exactly - but there are always losers.

And there are heros. The heros don't usually get the news reel highlights, and we don't often get to know who the "real" losers are or what it is they've lost. So here are some of the unknown losers and unsung heros:
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Sun vs. Microsoft This was the first battle about who controls the Java platform. Sun promised to make Java a public standard while Microsoft sought to customize it for Windows and in the process fracture Java and reduce its portability.   Big Loser: Microsoft. Two years ago, before the Java suit, Microsoft had the fastest JVM. But since then, they've been completely shut out of the Java server/EJB market - a devastating loss regardless who wins the suit.

Box Score:

Sun 7 - Microsoft 0

Unsung Hero 1: IBM. By adopting SOAP as its container connector in Websphere, IBM has opened up the EJB environment allowing participation by non-Java XA/OTS systems.

Unsung Hero 2: Dan Adler. His open source Java-Com JACOB library lets you connect from the Sun JDK to Microsoft COM using JNI.
     
Sun vs. Netscape This battle concerns what version of Java applets runs inside the browser. Netscape has yet to deliver a browser that can run Java 2. But recently Sun seems to have almost abandoned applets in favor of browserless applications.   Big Loser: Netscape. Along with the AOL buyout and split up of Netscape, most of the Java heavies evacuated leaving Netscape and Mozilla to fix the unfixable. So far they haven't.

Unsung Hero: Microsoft.
Both Internet Explorer 4 and 5 enable you to run Sun's Java 2 inside the browser. If it weren't for Microsoft, Java applets would be completely dead.

Box Score
:
Sun: 1 - Netscape: minus 3
     
Netscape vs. Microsoft Everyone knows this one too well, has their own version of the facts, and their own solution by now.

But the only solutions that matters belong to the Courts. Unless they finally get e-mail, what we think doesn't really matter too much. So I won't bother you by trying to elucidate.
  Big Loser 1: Small Developers One of Microsoft's many roles has been to create a market in which thousands of small companies can sell software at affordable prices. A crippled Microsoft could really hurt small companies.

Big Loser 2: The 4th and 5th Amendment The search for the Microsoft's smoking gun has eroded your privacy. We like to think of the personal computer as a kind of private extension for our thoughts. But PCs are not private. There are many things you can tell your doctor, priest, lawyer, and your therapist. But don't store personal data on your PC, or save your e-mail unless you're OK with it winding up on the Front Page.

Box Score:
Lawyers: 10 - Microsoft: 0 ( no hits and lots of fielding errors).

Unsung Hero: Apple Computers Without Apple, and with a possibly weakened Windows market, the developer pricing model might die out completely. Apple still don't have Java 2, but they will eventually. And Apple has been able to increase market share with a platform that at least looks exciting and soon may actually even be exciting.
     
Metallica vs. Napster This battle concerns whether Intenet users can share their own platform as Digital music has fallen victum to it's own success. No one ever asked you "where'd you copy that cassette tape?" CD Sales are way up but that's not good enough for the music industry.   Big Loser 1: Personal Computer Users The Internet was designed to share information - but as a user you may not be allowed to. And the technology that lets you is under fire. Your computer may not be private - but you can't just go around sharing it either. You're "supposed to be" a consumer, not a contributor.

Big Loser 2: Metallica

Box Score:

Napster: minus 8 - Metallica: minus 33-1/3
     
Oracle vs. Microsoft
The "Network Computer," attempts to establish itself as a desk top platform. But Larry Ellison's bi-annual brain child has no base running sense, and very little clout.
  Big Loser 1: Oracle Even with Oracle's new network file system, like the browser before it that Oracle agreed to drop to support Netscape, the Network Computer is going nowhere once again. Larry has gained, Bill has lost, but Bill's still richer. Aut Oracle must swim up stream just to get it's marketing team on to the field.

Big Loser 2: Microsoft
Despite a ton of rhetoric, Microsoft took the NC bait and waded out into left field with Windows CE, compounding their later anti-trust woes.

Box Score:
PPD Rained Out
Microsoft still leads the league.


Winner:
The Umpire: By refering to the NC in his "raising the barrier" argument, Judge Jackson has been one of the first and few humans to actually use the Network Computer as a consumer device for anything mildly productive.
     
IBM et al vs. Sun
This battle concerns who brands the Java enterprise platform - but it isn't just IBM and Sun. Other companies like Unify and open source projects jBoss, Enhydra, Bullsoft, and ExOffice don't see Sun's kings-ransom priced J2EE branding as necessary.
  Big Loser 1: Small Developers (again) At present, you can deliver on a budget with open source servers, and you can develop with J2EE. But because of Sun's licensing, you can't ship a complete J2EE product on a developer pricing model. This could severly limits capital growth of small companies.

Big Loser 2: NetDynamics Customers. In its commitment to J2EE, Sun has forced Net Dynamics customers to cut over to iPlanet, for some, an unwanted opportunity.


And the Big Winner (and Unsung Hero) is: BEA
So far, Sun has certified just one J2EE server - itself, Sun's own iPlant. But it is BEA who has captured the lions share of the market and EJB developer loyalties. The vast majority of component developers have rallied around BEA Weblogic as if it were the standard rather than Sun.

Box Score:
IBM 1 - Sun 1 - BEA 5


Rich Katz -Ed
Java Skyline

References:
   
Jun 15 Java war veteran begs to differ (ZDnet) Deborah Gage
Jun 12 Where were you in the Java Wars, Daddy? (ZDnet) David Coursey
Jun 12 As Its Power Rises, Sun Coming Around to Microsoft's Style (LA Times) Joseph Menn
Jun 16 Big Blue, Sun in Java dispute (InfoWorld) Lee Copeland
Jun 12 Mixed messages persist on Java (IT Analyst) Lion
Jun 12 Recording industry seeks immediate shutdown of Napster (AP/SF Gate) Ron Harris
Jun 8 It was just another day for Netscape (Mercury) Tracy Seipel
Jun 16 Gates reigns as top billionaire on Forbes' list (C/Net) Staff